Treasonous Tides: A historical primer of espionage within the U.S. Department of the Navy
Treasonous Tides looks at more than a century of espionage against and within the U.S. Department of the Navy (DON) to discern the trends that will illuminate the future of U.S. naval counterintelligence. Based on the principles of war, the book suggests a new way to interpret naval counterintelligence that emphasizes the merger of intelligence and law enforcement to ensure that the DON wins the war at sea. Including more than 50 espionage cases that impacted the DON from 1898 to 2010, the book places each case into historical perspective, provides a brief overview, and draws out the significance and lessons learned for each. The book highlights trends that remain applicable today while also revealing how the DON’s past apathy and lack of investment in counterintelligence led to strategic surprise on several occasions. The book also provides unique insight into the motivations and methods of those who spied against the DON, most of which remained remarkably consistent for more than 100 years. At the strategic level, the book clarifies the relative significance of each case and uses that information to suggest an operational prioritization for the future. Everyone involved in resourcing, planning, executing, and benefiting from U.S. naval counterintelligence will profit from the history and analysis presented here. Available at: https://www.usmcu.edu/Portals/218/Treasonous%20Tides_web.pdf
A Bridge of Boats: Analyzing Sino-American relations through the lens of Thucydide’s Trap
A Bridge of Boats analyzes Sino-American relations through the lens of Graham Allison’s Thucydide’s Trap Theory to determine if the two powers are likely to engage in armed conflict in the next decade and if so, what form this conflict will take. To answer this question, twelve clues that Allison identified as indicators of Thucydide’s Trap were analysed through process tracing and compared them to contemporary Sino-American relations. Next an empirical review was performed in order to conduct a comparison of the U.S. and Chinese fleets through the theories and ideas of Mahan and Wegener. The results of this study indicate that the U.S. and China are currently on the path to war, however, if leaders and policymakers on both sides navigate through crises effectively, then demographic shifts will slowly make war less likely beyond 2035. Additionally, it was found that if a conflict were to break out in the next decade, there is a strong indication that the conflict would be limited to the area between the South China Sea and the First and Second Island Chain with China employing A2/AD defensive tactics to delay a U.S. counterattack and maintain what ground they have gained. Available at: https://rucforsk.ruc.dk/ws/files/111388114/IPGThesisfr71246.pdf
A Confederate Intelligence Coup Won the Siege of Charleston Harbor
Tasked with preventing the Union capture of Charleston, Confederate intelligence agents mounted a complex effort to crack the enemy signal codes. Key to the Confederate operation was the capture of Union signal officer Thomas Rusby who was duped into revealing code settings through an elaborate false flag elicitation mission. Available at: https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/a-confederate-intelligence-coup-won-the-siege-of-charleston-harbor/
Espionage Double Cross in Singapore
On December 5, 1934, Yoshio Nishimura, managing director of a major Japanese mining company in British Malaya, collapsed and died in the offices of the Straits Settlements Police Special Branch. A prominent member of Japanese society in Singapore, his death shocked the Japanese expatriate community. Nishimura’s death has been shrouded in mystery for over 80 years, and conjecture about his involvement in an espionage ring was rife. However, recently declassified documents from the British National Archives reveal that Nishimura was actually the target of a masterful colonial police double agent operation inspired by the criminal misadventures of an amateur football player turned con man. Available at: https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/article/espionage-double-cross-in-singapore/
Who Really Blew Up Mare Island?
Early on 9 July 1917, the gunpowder magazine at the Naval Ammunition Depot on Mare Island, California, exploded, flattening several nearby buildings and killing six. Immediately, U.S. Navy officials blamed German sabotage, but the investigation proved inconclusive. A century later, German responsibility, first assumed in 1918 and republicized in 1937, has become regarded as fact, with a dozen books and papers repeating the claim. A close examination of the historical record, however, reveals the claim to be false—and suggests an entirely different explanation. Available at: https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2022/june/who-really-blew-mare-island